{
  "availability_segments": {
    "high_9_plus_days": {
      "company_rate": 0.025357751439557586,
      "exposures": 315722,
      "orders": 8006,
      "products": 285
    },
    "low_0_2_days": {
      "company_rate": 0.05696844921944834,
      "exposures": 346806,
      "orders": 19757,
      "products": 315
    }
  },
  "causal_claim": false,
  "hypotheses": [
    {
      "alternative_explanations": [
        "Category or price-band mix despite matching.",
        "Delivery promise or content score.",
        "Synthetic benchmark is not audited competitor truth."
      ],
      "evidence": "Recomputed from matched SQLite rows.",
      "hypothesis": "Company conversion is lower than the cohort-matched synthetic benchmark.",
      "status": "to_be_validated"
    },
    {
      "alternative_explanations": [
        "Confounding by product mix, delivery, price, or content."
      ],
      "evidence": "Low and high stockout-day segments are defined for recomputation.",
      "hypothesis": "Availability disruption is associated with conversion differences.",
      "status": "to_be_validated"
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "Offline synthetic observational fixture.",
    "No causal identification or audited competitor data.",
    "Segment comparison is descriptive."
  ],
  "method": "recompute",
  "monthly": [
    {
      "company_rate": 0.04801152465520499,
      "competitor_weighted_rate": 0.05670112648781408,
      "month": "2026-05",
      "products": 150
    },
    {
      "company_rate": 0.04439807820897001,
      "competitor_weighted_rate": 0.056638357809752536,
      "month": "2026-06",
      "products": 150
    },
    {
      "company_rate": 0.0392842638670845,
      "competitor_weighted_rate": 0.05668216781733213,
      "month": "2026-07",
      "products": 150
    },
    {
      "company_rate": 0.03587565027991287,
      "competitor_weighted_rate": 0.0566270228430508,
      "month": "2026-08",
      "products": 150
    }
  ],
  "next_validation": [
    "Pre-register cohort and segment analysis on real transaction-level data.",
    "Use uncertainty intervals and adjust for delivery, content, category, and price."
  ],
  "overall": {
    "company_rate": 0.041904644030139104,
    "competitor_weighted_rate": 0.056662462567619885,
    "exposures": 662528,
    "gap_percentage_points": -1.475781853748078,
    "orders": 27763,
    "products": 600
  },
  "scope": "Synthetic furniture products launched 2026-05 through 2026-08; matching month, category, and price band.",
  "source_sha256": "2db511758dfb2fc9485c87c12514101ac49d558edb9bae2a5228e3a9e50f6a0b",
  "case": "retail-agent-validation",
  "production_outcomes_measured": false
}